The Society of Actuaries’ (SOA) new Scale MP-2019 mortality improvement rates will lead to lower liabilities compared to the previous versions. Along with the improvement scale, the SOA’s Retirement Plans Experience Committee (RPEC) also released a set of new mortality tables, Pri-2012, both on October 23rd. The new tables and improvement scale may be used for financial reporting purposes now. The improvement scale is expected to be used in 2021 for PBGC, lump sum, and cash funding calculations.
Pri-2012 Mortality Tables
The Pri-2012 tables are the most recent private mortality tables released by the SOA since the RP-2006 tables. The SOA estimates that most plan liabilities will fall within 1.0% (up or down) of the liability they would have seen under the RP-2006 tables. The new tables were developed using data from 2010-2014 and reflect the RPEC’s commitment to update the base mortality tables every five years.
When compared to the RP-2006 tables, life expectancy for a 65 year old female remains at 87.4, while the life expectancy of a 65 year old male decreased from 85.0 to 84.7.
The new Pri-2012 tables are based on more multiemployer data compared to the prior tables. Mortality experience under multiemployer plans did not differ significantly from experience in single employer plans. The SOA determined that job classification (blue-collar and white-collar) is an increasing forecaster of mortality and more indicative of future experience than benefit amount.
The SOA identified that surviving beneficiaries had higher mortality than the general population and created separate mortality tables for this demographic with the Pri-2012 tables update.
MP-2019 Mortality Improvement Scale
The new mortality improvement scale MP-2019 is based on historical U.S. population mortality. This continues to fulfill the RPEC’s pledge to update the improvement scales annually.
Consistent with all prior updates since the first table (MP-2014) was released, the MP-2019 improvement scale will reduce liabilities for pension plans compared to the MP-2018 improvement scale. The SOA estimated that pension obligations will typically be 0.3% to 1.0% lower when compared to using Scale MP-2018.
According to the study, the observed age-adjusted mortality rate increased slightly from the prior year, yet it is fairly level relative to the last several years. Also, the age-adjusted mortality improvement rate averaged just 0.3% per year from 2010 to 2017, compared to 0.5% that was observed in the prior study from 2009 to 2016.
Implications for Pension Plans
Pri-2012 may be adopted for financial accounting disclosures and pension expense purposes. The adoption of the new tables will likely result in little change to liabilities. We expect plan sponsors will generally adopt the Pri-2012 tables to replace the RP-2006 tables.
Plan sponsors who have updated their improvement scale annually will generally adopt the MP-2019 improvement scale. As noted, it is expected to lower liabilities, and thus will result in lower pension expense.
We do not expect that the minimum funding calculations, PBGC premiums, and lump sum calculations will use the Pri-2012 table in the near future. However, the 2021 plan year will likely incorporate the MP-2019 scale based on the currently proposed intent from the IRS. Absent any other changes, this update will result in lower funding liability, PBGC liability and lump sum amounts for pension plans in that plan year.
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Published October 28, 2019
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